THE CONSERVATIVES appear to be in the driving seat for Wokingham in the general election – but a new poll suggests the result is too close to call.
IPSOS unveiled its first MRP (multiple regression and post stratification) research ahead of the July 4 general election.
While it confirms other polls in giving Labour a super majority – in this case 256 – it says 117 seats cannot be predicted, with Conservatives second in 50 of them, and Labour in 43. They say small changes in the way parties poll could see a different result to the ones in this poll.
Nationally, Labour would win 453 seats, Conservatives 115, Liberal Democrats 38, SNP 15, Greens 3, and Reform UK also 3. Under this scenario, some big beasts in the current cabinet would lose their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees Mogg, and Grant Shapps.
To get the sample, IPSOS canvassed 20,000 people, giving data down to a constituency level.
Reading West and Mid Berkshire is predicted as a ‘Lean Labour’ win: Olivia Bailey would have 36%, while Conservatives Ross Mackinnon would have 31%. Kate Bosley for Reform UK would have 15%, Helen Belcher for the Lib Dems would have 13% and Carolyne Culver for the Greens on 5%. The data doesn’t show the two independent candidates, Adrian Abbs and Adie Peppiatt.
Reading Central would see incumbent Matt Rodda romp home for Labour.
He is forecast to receive over half the vote – 52%.
That is streets ahead of Raj Singh, the Conservative candidate, on 19%. The Greens’ Dave McElroy would beat Andy Williams for Reform UK to third place, with 10% and 9% respectively, while Henry Wright for the Lib Dems would poll 8%.
Also standing, but not listed, are Adam Gillman (TUSC) and independent Michael Turberville.
‘Lean Labour’ is the likely outcome in Earley and Woodley.
IPSOS predicts Yuan Yang will get 43% of the vote, five percentage points ahead of the Conservatives Pauline Jorgensen’s 38%. Tahir Maher would poll 12% for the Liberal Democrats, while the Greens Gary Shacklady would net 6%.
Alastair Hunter is standing for the SDP, but not listed.
Wokingham is a tight race, and IPSOS say it is a toss-up.
The Conservatives Lucy Demery is polling 35%, just three percentage points ahead of Clive Jones for the Lib Dems, on 32%. Monica Hamidi would poll 20% for Labour, Colin Wright for Reform UK would get 10% and the Greens’ Merv Boniface would get 4%.
IPSOS says the figures are an estimate of people’s current voting intentions and not what will happen on the day itself.
Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland, said: “Ipsos’ new MRP, based on data collected from our online random probability KnowledgePanel, supports the trends that suggest Labour is on course to win the 2024 election with a very healthy majority, while the Conservatives are facing the potential for record losses.
“They are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.
“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”
