SATELLITES could be used to give improved warnings of dangerous solar storms thanks to a breakthrough in the way scientists use space weather measurements.
Experts from the University of Reading have found that using satellite data can be used to improve the accuracy of solar wind forecasts – which are harmful streams of charged particles sent from the sun – by nearly 50%.
Research published today, May 18, in Space Weather, could pave the way for agencies, such as the Met Office, to better prepare for the effects of severe space weather, which can cause blackouts and harm human health.
Lead researcher Harriet Turner, from Reading’s Department of Meteorology, said: “We know lots about how to prepare for storms that form on Earth, but we need to improve our forecasts of the dangerous weather we get from space.
“Space weather threatens our technology-focussed way of life as it can cause power grids to fail, damage satellites, such as GPS, and even make astronauts ill.
“Our research has shown that using rapid satellite measurements to forecast space weather is effective. By sending spacecraft far from Earth, we can use this new technique to get better solar storm predictions and ensure we are prepared for what’s to come.”
To predict space weather, scientists need to forecast the solar wind conditions at Earth – they do this by combining computer simulations with observations from space to estimate what space weather will be like.
The highest quality observations only become available many days after they are made, after they have been -processed on the ground and ‘cleaned’, meaning forecasts take longer to achieve.
To overcome this, the research team tried using near-real-time (NRT) data, which does not undergo any processing or cleaning, meaning it is less accurate but can be made available within a couple of hours.
Predictions have still been found to be reliable and enable greater warning time. This could allow authorities to better prepare for power failures that cost up to $2.1 trillion over a century in the USA and Europe.
Simon Machin, Met Office Space Weather Manager, said: “This is a great example of the value that can result through our collaboration with academia.
“By pulling through scientific research into the operational domain, improved space weather forecasting will ultimately enhance our nation’s ability to prepare for and mitigate against space weather events.”
The European Space Agency (ESA) will launch ‘Vigil’ in the mid 2020s, a first-of-its-kind mission that will monitor potentially hazardous solar activity using a number of UK-built instruments.
By launching the spacecraft into a position 60 degrees behind Earth in longitude, the Met Office will be able to improve space weather forecasts by using data assimilation of the NRT solar wind data.
It is hoped the unique location of Vigil will allow scientists to see the solar wind that will later arrive at Earth, maximising forecast accuracy and warning time.
