The Labour party is forecast to lose control of Reading Borough Council next month – for the first time in nearly four decades.
An opinion polling website has predicted unprecedented losses for this year’s local council elections in May.
Reading Borough Council has been controlled by the Labour Party for 39 of the last 40 years.
It is currently made up of 31 Labour councillors, eight Green Party councillors, three Conservatives, three Liberal Democrats, one Reform UK councillor and an Independent.
Polling site Britain Votes Now has predicted that Labour could lose seven seats at the council elections on Thursday, May 7.
This would see Labour lose control of the council, as the result would leave them with 24 councillors, one short of the 25 needed for a majority.
The loss would be unprecedented, as it would see the Labour team lose three lead councillors.
Karen Rowland, the lead councillor for environmental services and community safety, is standing in Abbey ward, with the prediction giving the Greens a 53 per cent of winning.
Adele Barnett-Ward, the Labour lead councillor for leisure and culture, could lose to the Greens, who are given a 57 per cent chance of taking Thames ward.
Meanwhile, Ellie Emberson, Labour lead councillor for corporate services and resources, could be unseated by the Greens as well, with the site giving them a 54 per cent chance of victory.
Overall, Britain Votes Now predicts the Greens will win 11 seats, Labour will keep three in Norcot, Whitley and Church, and one each for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
But the website fails to account for the casual vacancy left by Sam Juthani, who served as a Labour councillor for the Caversham Heights ward after being elected in 2023.
That year, there was a debate over whether Reading could be a ‘one-party state’ under Labour, which ultimately resulted in just one change, with Mr Juthani beating sitting Conservative councillor Paul Carnell.
For Caversham Heights, Britain Votes Now predicts a vote share of 40 per cent for the Conservatives and 35 per cent for the Greens.
It is unclear whether that would mean a Conservative sweep for cllr Isobel Ballsdon and Saadia Saadat or Green candidates Adil Khan and Danny McNamara winning one.
The prediction was highlighted by councillor Rob White, the leader of the Green Party group on the council and candidate for Park ward.
Cllr White posted that it is “a very interesting prediction” on X.
Reacting to the prediction, cllr Liz Terry, leader of the Labour group said: “Polls are polls are polls, I’m confident in our candidates and sitting councillors, we’ve been talking to people since last summer.
“We recognise poll volatility, we’re confident about track record, people recognise the council is doing a good job and recognise candidates will do a good job – I don’t think anyone should overplay any of those, it’s about what is happening locally, I remain confident that we are doing a good job locally and residents want to continue to vote for the Labour candidates.
“I’m confident that we’ve proved ourselves and are delivering for local people, they speak to people all year round. The feedback we’ve been getting is that we are doing a good job, people will come out and vote for us, I understand it’s a difficult year confident in our candidates and councillors.
“We can get carried away with polling, but we are cautious but optimistic – election cycles are what they are – when you are the same party as the one in government, no matter what party it is, if your party is in power you see people wanting a protest vote or going for a different choice, I get of all that, we look back over longer patterns voters have stuck with Labour, but this will be a more unpredictable election than it has been for a while.
“I don’t want to be foolishly predicting it’ll all be fine either, but the Labour team have been out there working hard listening to people all year round.”
