A TEAM of experts from across Europe – including a University of Reading researcher – have compiled a list of 15 overlooked and emerging issues which are likely to have a significant impact on UK forests over the next 50 years.
As the first ‘horizon scanning’ exercise – a technique used to identify relatively unknown threats, opportunities and new trends – of UK forests, the aim of the study is to aid researchers, practitioners, policymakers and the public better prepare for the future and address threats as early as possible.
Dr Eleanor Tew, first author, visiting researcher at Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, said: “The next 50 years will bring huge changes to UK forests: the threats they face, the way that we manage them, and the benefits they deliver to society.”
The study, a collaboration between Forestry England and the University of Cambridge, was published in journal Forestry on Wednesday, November 8. A panel made up of 42 experts selected the 15 issues highlighted, including Reading’s School of Biological Sciences lecturer in ecology Dr Rebecca Spake.
The ‘catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ – referring to multiple affiliated hazards that are having a cascading effect on forests, leading to their partial or total collapse – was the most highly ranked issue, with 64% of experts ranking it as their top issue and 88% ranking it within their top three.
Other issues which were identified included droughts caused by climate change, which may lead to competition for water between forests and society, and tree viral diseases.
Extreme weather has resulted in smaller windows of time when forestry can be carried out. Experts warn that the seasons for carrying out work such as harvesting and thinning are getting narrower as wetter winters and scorching summers prevail.
Dr Rebecca Spake said: “The horizon scan has highlighted emerging threats that are currently less widely appreciated across the forestry sector. It is so important that we consider how these threats might interact with ongoing, better-known threats to UK forests.
“For example, we will be mindful to consider these emerging threats in Project iDeer, which aims to facilitate strategic woodland creation and management that minimises the impacts of high densities of wild deer on new and existing woodland in England and Wales.”
However not all emerging issues are threats – some are new opportunities. For example, trees will be at the heart of future urban planning. Experts predict that ‘forest lungs’ will be created thanks to an increased understanding of the benefits of trees for society.
They say there will likely be a greater blurring of boundaries between urban and rural areas, with an increase in green infrastructure and connectivity.
The full list of issues identified by the report includes:
1) Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse
2) Increased drought and flooding change the social costs and benefits of trees
3) Forest management becomes more challenging due to changing seasonal working windows
4) Protecting and enhancing soil microbial ecology becomes a higher priority
5) Viruses and viroids emerge as pathogens of increasing importance for trees
6) eDNA revolutionises our understanding of forest ecosystems
7) Trees are at the heart of future urban planning
8) The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) drives transparency and investment in nature-positive management
9) Natural capital funding streams are greatly upscaled
10) New technologies facilitate widespread adoption of smart silviculture
11) New technologies improve worker health and safety
12) New wood product markets stimulate more active forest management
13) UK commercial forest resources may not match future value chains
14) Unpredictable supply and demand dynamics in global wood product markets
15) International commitments will spotlight ecosystem integrity and drive monitoring efforts.
